Crypto Crashes as exchange, FTX, faces liquidity crisis.
GO Markets
9/11/2022
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Bitcoin has dropped dramatically over the last 24 hours to its lowest level for the year after fears were sparked that major player FTX faced a liquidity crisis. In the last two years cryptocurrency has become available to large institutions and funds which has increased the overall size of the market. However, at the same time it has made it vulnerable to large liquidity events such as the one that is occurring now.
The reason for the large drop-off was the news that exchange FTX was facing serious liquidity issues after a large drop in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this year. Subsequently almost as an act of mercy, Binance the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange has proposed that it will buy out FTX and its subsidiaries to stabilise the market. In addition, fears over customers’ ability to withdraw their funds from accounts were abounds on Tuesday.
This is not the first-time withdrawal issues have hurt the sector with frozen accounts being an issue when Celsius was facing difficulties. This run has seen the price of Bitcoin fall sharply to its lowest levels since November 2020. The price dumped about USD 2000 as the news hit the market.
The price then bounced of the USD 17,000 level to where it now rests near in the mid USD 18,000’s. The volume sold was the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the price continues to hold its longer term range indicating some level of strength at the USD 18,000 level.
There is still a fair bit to play out regarding this potential merger. A failed deal or an accelerated acquisition could either help or hinder the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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GO Markets
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As tariff shocks collide with a ten year extreme in oil positioning, the margin for error is zero. See the technical markers and safe haven pivots defining the current risk environment.
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
6.75 daysof Hormuz throughput covered
6.75 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
1.3 daysof world demand covered
1.3 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135 daysof full SPR release pace covered
135 days — but SPR exists to replace this role
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Indicative market trajectories based on disruption severity
Scenarios for the weeks ahead
1–2 WEEKS
Ceasefire catch-up
Markets face catch-up repricing. Brent could consolidate in the US$105–US$115 range as risk premia unwind. Brent may trade lower (US$95–US$110) if strategic stocks bridge the temporary shortfall.
2–4 WEEKS
Infrastructure blitz
Shifts to structural supply shock. Brent moving toward US$150–US$200 cannot be ruled out. This is the stagflation trigger where energy costs constrain central bank flexibility.
STRUCTURAL
Geopolitical floor
Iran's transit fee demand creates a permanent input cost. The pre-crisis price structure (US$60–US$70) may not return, embedded in insurance and freight rates.
Critical Threshold
US$120 remains the level at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem.